How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Baranovichi to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Arsenal Dzerzhinsk and 1.2 from Baranovichi, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Baranovichi to win. Baranovichi shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.2), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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