How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Slavia Mozyr to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from FC Minsk and 1.3 from Slavia Mozyr, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Slavia Mozyr to win. Slavia Mozyr shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.95, which works out at about 34 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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