How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Gomel or Draw 81%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Dnyapro Mogilev and 1.5 from Gomel, so Gomel come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Gomel or Draw. This covers Gomel or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Gomel have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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