Isloch v Slavia Mozyr prediction

What to expect

Isloch host Slavia Mozyr at home in the Belarus Vysshaya Liga on 1 November. Isloch sit third in the 16-team table with 55 points from 26 games and a +28 goal difference. One place above them, ML Vitebsk sit on 56 points, while Dynamo Brest sit five points behind in fourth. Slavia Mozyr are down in tenth place with 31 points and a –2 goal difference. Torpedo Zhodino sit just above them on 33 points and Baranovichi are level on 31 points just below. The match could tighten the chase for the European spots for Isloch and give Slavia Mozyr a chance to climb out of the lower half.

Isloch come into this game on the back of three straight wins. In their last eight fixtures they have won five, drawn two and lost one, scoring 17 and conceding six. The most recent results are a 1-0 home win over ML Vitebsk, a 6-0 away demolition of Naftan Novopolotsk, a 4-2 home victory over FC Minsk, a 0-0 draw away at FK Vitebsk, a 2-1 home loss to Neman Grodno and a 2-1 home win over Gomel. In those eight games they kept four clean sheets and were held scoreless only once. Four of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. Their last six home games have been especially strong – four wins, one draw and one loss – showing they can be dangerous on their own turf even on a short four-day turnaround.

Slavia Mozyr have struggled to find consistency. In their last eight games they have won three and lost five, with no draws. Their recent form includes a 4-2 home win over Torpedo Zhodino, a 4-2 away win at Belshina Bobruisk, a 3-1 away loss to Dinamo Minsk, a 2-1 away defeat by BATE Borisov, a 1-0 home loss to Naftan Novopolotsk and a 1-0 away loss to FC Minsk. They arrive on the back of two consecutive victories, but those wins have come at home and away respectively. In their last five road games they have managed only one win and have been beaten four times. Over the eight-game stretch they have scored 13 and let in 12, kept just one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in three matches. Their most recent outing was a 4-2 win at home over Torpedo Zhodino, a match in which they showed they can score goals but also concede several.

When the two sides meet, the history is balanced. In the last five meetings Isloch have won once, Slavia Mozyr have won once and three games have ended in draws. Those encounters have averaged 2.2 goals per game, indicating a relatively tight affair with both teams able to find the net. The most recent meeting on 20 June saw Isloch win 2-0 away, a result that underlines their ability to keep a clean sheet against this opponent. Given Isloch’s stronger home record and recent three-match winning streak, the upcoming game looks likely to follow the pattern of a low-scoring, disciplined performance from the hosts.

We pick Isloch to win. The numbers show Isloch averaging about 1.7 goals per game while Slavia Mozyr average just under one. The chance of Isloch scoring at all is high at 84 %, and they have a 55 % chance of scoring twice or more. Slavia Mozyr’s chance to score is lower at 59 % and only 23 % to get two goals. Our own assessment gives Isloch a roughly 61 % chance of victory, and the price of 1.56 is shorter than we think the game is worth, making it an attractive offer. For this pick to go wrong Slavia Mozyr would need to find a rare double-goal performance and keep Isloch from scoring, something that has happened only once in their recent meetings. If that occurs, the upset would be costly, but the balance of evidence points to a home win for Isloch.