Dinamo Minsk v Naftan Novopolotsk: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Dinamo Minsk to win 85%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Dinamo Minsk look clearly the stronger side in this clash. The numbers give them about three goals while Naftan are expected to score less than one. That gap makes Dinamo the clear favourite, but the estimate also says there will be chances at both ends, so the game should have some open moments.

Looking at recent form, Dinamo have struggled a bit. In their last five league matches they have won two and lost three, and they come into this game on two straight defeats. Naftan’s recent results are not listed, so we can’t draw a direct comparison, but Dinamo’s dip does not change the fact that they still rate much higher than their opponents.

Our pick is Dinamo Minsk to win. The price on offer is 1.16, which sits right on what we think the game will be like. With an 85 % chance of success, the odds feel fair and give a simple way to back the stronger side without chasing a bigger payout elsewhere.

For this to go wrong Dinamo would have to fail to score at all and let Naftan find a goal. A loss or a draw would be a surprise given the goal expectations. We are fairly confident in our view, but we acknowledge the recent defeats mean there is a small risk of a slip-up.