What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Slavia Mozyr and 1.0 from FK Vitebsk, so Slavia Mozyr come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FK Vitebsk come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Slavia Mozyr to win. Slavia Mozyr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.0), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
FK Vitebsk only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 41% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
