How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Torpedo Zhodino to win 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from FK Vitebsk and 1.1 from Torpedo Zhodino, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Torpedo Zhodino come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Torpedo Zhodino to win. Torpedo Zhodino shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Torpedo Zhodino have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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