What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from ML Vitebsk and 0.7 from FC Minsk, so ML Vitebsk come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FC Minsk come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: ML Vitebsk to win. ML Vitebsk are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
ML Vitebsk have won two of the last three meetings, with one drawn.
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