How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Mechelen to score 1 or fewer 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Mechelen host St Truiden at their home ground in the Belgian Pro League on 11 October 2026. Mechelen sit near the bottom of the table, having gone eight games without a win, while St Truiden are a little higher, though they have just suffered two defeats in a row. Both teams are fighting for points to avoid slipping further down, and the numbers suggest St Truiden are the stronger side overall. The match promises a modest goal total, with the expected combined tally just under three.
Mechelen’s recent form has been bleak. In their last eight matches they have not won a single game, recording three draws and five losses. The most recent result was a 0-0 draw away at Lommel SK. Before that they fell 1-0 to Anderlecht at home, then suffered a heavy 4-0 loss to Westerlo on their own turf. An earlier 2-2 draw away at RAAL La Louvière was followed by a 2-0 defeat at Charleroi, and a 3-3 stalemate at home against Standard. In those eight games Mechelen have scored only five goals while conceding seventeen. They have kept just one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in six of the matches. Four of the games featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them.
St Truiden’s eight-game run is mixed but more promising. They have won three, drawn two and lost three. Their latest outing was a 2-0 loss at home to Westerlo, preceded by another 2-0 defeat away to Beveren. Prior to that they enjoyed a 4-0 home win over RAAL La Louvière, then a 3-0 loss at home to St Gilloise. A highlight was a 4-1 victory away at Antwerp, and they also shared a 3-3 draw with Cercle Brugge on the road. Over these eight games St Truiden have scored fifteen and let in twelve. They have kept two clean sheets but have also been shut out three times. Five of the matches produced three or more goals, and both teams scored in three of those. Their most recent result, the 2-0 defeat to Westerlo, came just 21 days after their last game.
When the two clubs meet, St Truiden have the clear edge. In the last five meetings St Truiden have won four and drawn one, with an average of three goals per game. The most recent encounter on 24 May 2026 ended in a 3-0 win for St Truiden at Mechelen. Given the recent trends, we expect a low-scoring affair for the home side. Mechelen have struggled to score, managing just five goals in eight games and failing to hit the net in six of those. St Truiden, while capable of finding the net, have also been shut out three times in their recent run. The pattern points to a game where Mechelen are likely to score at most once.
Our pick is Mechelen to score one goal or fewer. We see a 65 % chance that this will happen, which matches the price of 1.57 that is on offer. The price sits close to our own reading of the match. For the pick to go wrong, Mechelen would need to find the net twice, something they have only done in 35 % of their recent games and have failed to do in six of their last eight outings. If they manage to break their drought and score more than once, the bet would lose, but the odds and the evidence both suggest the safer route is to back a single goal or none for Mechelen.
Recent results
St Truiden have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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