How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from St. Gilloise and 0.6 from Oud-Heverlee Leuven, so St. Gilloise come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
St. Gilloise come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.8 goals (xG 2.4-0.5), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 83%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
St. Gilloise have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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