How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Guabirá to win 46%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Guabirá and 1.4 from Aurora, so Guabirá come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aurora come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Guabirá to win. Guabirá are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.4), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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