How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Nacional Potosí to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Nacional Potosí and 1.1 from Guabirá, so Nacional Potosí come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Nacional Potosí to win. Nacional Potosí are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.1), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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