How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FK Velež Mostar or Draw 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Čelik Zenica and 1.1 from FK Velež Mostar, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: FK Velež Mostar or Draw. This covers FK Velež Mostar or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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