What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sloga Doboj and 1.1 from Čelik Zenica, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Sloga Doboj to win. Sloga Doboj are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.1), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Čelik Zenica only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 39%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
