FK Sarajevo v Zrinjski Mostar: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Zrinjski Mostar to win 37%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from FK Sarajevo and 1.2 from Zrinjski Mostar, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Zrinjski Mostar to win. Zrinjski Mostar shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.2), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.