How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FK Sarajevo to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even, but the numbers give a slight edge to FK Sarajevo. We expect about 2.4 goals in total, with Široki Brijeg around 1.1 and Sarajevo about 1.3. That suggests a tight match where a single goal could decide it. Both teams are likely to push forward, but Sarajevo’s slight advantage means they may have the better chance to take the lead.
Looking at recent form, Sarajevo have been inconsistent in their last five league outings, winning two, drawing one and losing two, whether at home or away. Široki Brijeg’s recent results aren’t listed, so we can’t compare directly, but Sarajevo’s mixed record shows they can pick up points on the road. The pattern hints that Sarajevo can still pull off a win even when they are not at their best.
Our pick is FK Sarajevo to win. The price of 2.10 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so it looks attractive. We see Sarajevo as the stronger side on the numbers and feel a win is the most straightforward outcome to back.
For this to go wrong, Sarajevo would need to struggle to score and let Široki Brijeg find the net, perhaps turning the match into a draw or a loss. We are reasonably confident in our view, but we know there is a 39 % chance it won’t happen, so we hold the opinion with moderate conviction.
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