How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Zrinjski Mostar to win 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Zrinjski Mostar and 0.6 from Široki Brijeg, so Zrinjski Mostar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zrinjski Mostar to win. Zrinjski Mostar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.6), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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