How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
I like Avaí SC to win because they seem like the stronger team. The price looks good for this pick. We think they have a decent chance of coming out on top.
What the numbers say
✓Avaí SC are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓CR Brasil AL have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in five of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
31 Aug 2024CR Brasil AL 1 - 2 Avaí SC
14 May 2024Avaí SC 2 - 1 CR Brasil AL
11 Nov 2023Avaí SC 1 - 1 CR Brasil AL
23 Aug 2023CR Brasil AL 1 - 1 Avaí SC
25 Sept 2021CR Brasil AL 1 - 2 Avaí SC
One thing to watch
CR Brasil AL only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 50%, so it's far from a lock.