What to expect
Our pick: Grêmio Novorizontino SP to win. Grêmio Novorizontino SP are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.7), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Grêmio Novorizontino SP have won two of their last five.
✓Juventude RS are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
Recent meetings
2 Aug 2023Juventude RS 1 - 0 Grêmio Novorizontino SP
22 Apr 2023Grêmio Novorizontino SP 1 - 0 Juventude RS
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Juventude RS a draw or better. We make it about 47% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
