How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Cuiabá MT to win. Cuiabá MT are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Cuiabá MT are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Fortaleza CE have won three of their last five.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Fortaleza CE to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 47%.
