How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Ceara and 0.9 from Cuiaba, so Ceara come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Ceara to win. Ceara are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.9), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Cuiaba a draw or better. We only make this about 46%, so it's far from a lock.
