How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Criciuma and 0.7 from Goias, so Criciuma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Criciuma come into this on four straight defeats. Goias come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Criciuma to win. Criciuma are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.7), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Goias a draw or better. We make it about 53% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.