Londrina EC v Juventude: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Juventude (Draw No Bet) 60%, but the stake came back in full.

What we said beforehand

Londrina EC host Juventude in a Brazil Série B clash on September 1. The numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. We expect less than two goals in total, with Londrina likely to find the net less than once and Juventude a little over one. The balance is close, but Juventude have the edge in the expected tally.

Looking at recent form, Juventude have been decent over their last five league outings, mixing two wins, two draws and a loss. They come into this game on the back of two straight victories, which gives them a bit of momentum. Londrina’s recent results are not listed, so we can only rely on the overall expectation that Juventude are the stronger side.

Our pick is Juventude on a draw-no-bet. This means we only lose if Juventude are beaten; a draw returns our stake. The price of 1.67 matches our view of the match, and we feel it is a fair offering. We estimate a 60 % chance that this result will happen.

The bet could go wrong if the game turns into a defensive stalemate and neither side manages to score, or if Londrina pull off a surprise goal and hold on. A loss for Juventude would also break our view. Our confidence is moderate – we see a clear edge but recognize the game could stay very tight.