What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Novorizontino and 0.7 from America MG, so Novorizontino come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
America MG come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Novorizontino to win. Novorizontino are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.7), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn America MG a draw or better. We make it about 63% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.