What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Londrina EC and 1.1 from Atletico GO, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Londrina EC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Atletico GO to win. Atletico GO shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.2), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Londrina EC a draw or better. We make it about 36% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
