What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.1 from Fluminense, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 51%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. We make it about 51% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
