How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.1 from Fluminense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.3-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fluminense have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
