How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Gremio to score 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Gremio and 1.0 from Vasco, so Gremio come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Gremio to score. This is about Gremio's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.6 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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