What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Gremio and 1.0 from Vasco, so Gremio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on two straight defeats. Vasco come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gremio or Draw. This covers Gremio or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. We make it about 81% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
