What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Palmeiras and 0.7 from Sao Paulo, so Palmeiras come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Palmeiras or Draw. This covers Palmeiras or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 90 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake.
