How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Palmeiras and 0.7 from Sao Paulo, so Palmeiras come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sao Paulo come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.9-0.7), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Palmeiras have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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