What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Atletico-MG and 1.0 from Gremio, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.5-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 78%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We make it about 78% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
