How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Mirassol and 1.5 from Flamengo RJ, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.6 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.5), keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.81, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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