How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Chapecoense-SC and 1.6 from Bahia, so Bahia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bahia come into this on four straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 79%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Bahia have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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