What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Chapecoense-SC and 1.6 from Bahia, so Bahia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bahia come into this on five straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.7 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We only make this about 57%, so it's far from a lock.
