How it turned out
The game finished with 4 goals. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Cruzeiro have won three of their last five.
✓Mirassol have won three of their last five.
✓Two of the last three meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last three meetings.
Recent results
11 Feb 2026Mirassol 2 - 2 Cruzeiro
19 Aug 2025Mirassol 1 - 1 Cruzeiro
29 Mar 2025Cruzeiro 2 - 1 Mirassol
Cruzeiro have won one of the last three meetings, with two drawn.
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