How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Fluminense and 1.2 from Palmeiras, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Fluminense come into this on three straight draws. Palmeiras come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We make it about 59% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.