Fluminense v Palmeiras: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 57%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.0 goals from Fluminense and 1.2 from Palmeiras, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Fluminense come into this on five straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). Clear chances should be at a premium.

We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

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