How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Ludogorets Razgrad to win 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.7 goals from Ludogorets Razgrad and 0.5 from Septemvri Sofia, so Ludogorets Razgrad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Ludogorets Razgrad to win. Ludogorets Razgrad are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.5), and we make them about 85% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Ludogorets Razgrad have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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