What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Cherno More Varna and 0.8 from Septemvri Sofia, so Cherno More Varna come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Septemvri Sofia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cherno More Varna to win. Cherno More Varna are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.8), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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