How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made CSKA 1948 to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from CSKA 1948 and 0.8 from Spartak Varna, so CSKA 1948 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSKA 1948 come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CSKA 1948 to win. CSKA 1948 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.8), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
CSKA 1948 have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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