PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 v CSKA Sofia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made CSKA Sofia to win 62%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Lokomotiv Sofia host CSKA Sofia in a Parva Liga clash at the end of September. Lokomotiv sit 13th out of 14, with just four points from eight matches and a –6 goal difference. They are already in the relegation zone, only a point clear of Cherno More Varna and a point ahead of Dunav Ruse. CSKA sit much higher, third in the table with twenty points from the same number of games and a +15 goal difference. They sit two places below Ludogorets Razgrad and one above CSKA 1948. The gap in the standings means Lokomotiv are fighting to stay up while CSKA are pushing for a top-three finish. The points at stake could move Lokomotiv out of the drop zone or push CSKA closer to the leaders.

Lokomotiv have not enjoyed a good run lately. In their last three outings they lost 3-0 to Celtic, then 4-1 to Kilmarnock, and before that they were beaten 2-0 by another side. Those three defeats add up to nine goals conceded and only one scored. The string of heavy losses leaves them with a poor defensive record and a lack of firepower in front of goal. Their recent form suggests they will struggle to keep a clean sheet and will find it hard to find the net against a side that scores regularly.

CSKA’s recent form is a mix of highs and lows. In their last eight games they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The most recent results are a 4-1 home win over Arda Kardzhali, followed by a 4-2 away victory at Levski Sofia. Before those wins they drew 1-1 with Spartak Varna away, then suffered a 4-0 defeat to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away, a 2-0 loss to the same team at home, and a 2-0 loss to FC Basel 1893 away. The two wins give them momentum, but the three defeats show they can be vulnerable. Across those eight games CSKA have scored twelve and let in twelve, kept two clean sheets and failed to score in three matches. Their last five road games produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, so they know how to pick up points away from home. They played just four days ago, so the turnaround is short but they are coming off two straight victories.

We back CSKA Sofia to win. The numbers give CSKA an average of 1.8 goals compared with 0.9 for Lokomotiv, and they have a 62 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 1.53 is shorter than our own reading, which makes it an attractive offer. For our pick to fail, Lokomotiv would need to find a way to score at least once and keep a clean sheet, while CSKA would have to be shut out or concede enough to lose. If Lokomotiv manage a goal and CSKA only score once, the game could be tighter than expected, but the balance of the season and recent form still points to a CSKA victory.