What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.7 from CSKA Sofia, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.7), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓CSKA Sofia have won two of their last five.
