What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Elversberg and 1.3 from Mainz, so Elversberg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Elversberg have won two of their last five.
✓Mainz have won four of their last five.
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