How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from M'gladbach and 1.8 from Hoffenheim, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
M'gladbach come into this on five straight defeats. Hoffenheim come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 70%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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