How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Both teams to score 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Hamburg host Mainz at the weekend in a Bundesliga clash that could shift the middle of the table. Hamburg sit a few places below the European spots, while Mainz are fifth, just four points clear of the place that brings a euro-place ticket. Elversberg sit one spot above Mainz with two points more, and Bayern München are right behind Mainz on equal points. Both teams are looking to improve their standing, and a draw or win will keep the race tight.
Hamburg have not been consistent in their last eight matches. They lost 2-0 to Dortmund away, then drew 1-1 with Leverkusen away. At home they beat Freiburg 3-2 and later lost 2-1 to Hoffenheim. They also beat Ein Frankfurt 2-1 away and fell 3-1 to Werder Bremen away. In those eight games they have scored nine goals and let in sixteen. They have failed to find the net twice and have been involved in five games with three or more goals, six times both sides have scored.
Mainz come into the game on a stronger recent run. Their last eight results include a 0-0 home draw with Paderborn, a 2-0 away win at Heidenheim and a 2-1 away victory over St Pauli. They also drew 1-1 away at M’gladbach, lost 3-1 at home to Union Berlin and were beaten 4-3 by Bayern Munich at home. In those eight games they have scored eleven and also conceded eleven. They have kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. On the road they have been unbeaten in four matches, winning three and drawing one.
When the two clubs met before, Hamburg won once, Mainz once and one game ended in a draw. The average of those three meetings is three goals per game and the most recent encounter finished 1-1 on 20 February 2026. That result shows both sides are capable of scoring and that the match can open up. Given the similar expected goal numbers of 1.2 for each team, we anticipate another game where goals come from both ends.
Our pick is for both teams to score. The price of 1.60 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, making it an attractive offer. We think there is about a 59 % chance that each side will find the net, based on their recent scoring patterns and the history of high-scoring meetings. The pick would fail if Hamburg keep a clean sheet or if Mainz are shut out, which could happen if one side dominates defensively. Otherwise we expect a lively match with goals on both sides.
Recent meetings
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