How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.8 from RB Leipzig, so RB Leipzig come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Werder Bremen come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 1.2-1.8), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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