How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Paderborn and 1.1 from Freiburg, so Paderborn come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Freiburg come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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