What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Mainz and 1.2 from Werder Bremen, so Mainz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.2), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Mainz have won three of their last five.
✓Werder Bremen have won two of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
15 Mar 2026Werder Bremen 0 - 2 Mainz
1 Nov 2025Mainz 1 - 1 Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025Werder Bremen 1 - 0 Mainz
15 Sept 2024Mainz 1 - 2 Werder Bremen
3 Feb 2024Mainz 0 - 1 Werder Bremen
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