How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Cavalry FC or Draw 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Atlético Ottawa host Cavalry FC at the end of September in a Canadian Premier League clash that could reshape the top of the table. Ottawa sit third out of eight with 37 points after 24 games, but their goal difference is minus four. One place above them, Forge FC sit on 47 points, ten clear, while Vancouver FC sit just four points behind Ottawa in fourth. Cavalry sit comfortably on top with 53 points from 23 matches and a massive +35 goal difference. A win for Cavalry would stretch their lead to six points over Forge, while a draw would keep the gap narrow but still healthy. For Ottawa, a victory would close the gap to Forge and pull them clear of Vancouver.
Ottawa’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three outings they have won once and lost twice. The most recent result was a 1-0 win away at HFX Wanderers, a rare clean sheet that gave them their only goal in this stretch. Before that they fell 2-0 at home to Supra du Québec and, a game earlier, were beaten 3-0 away by Forge FC. Across those three matches they have scored just one goal while conceding five, keeping one clean sheet and failing to find the net in two games. The short four-day turnaround from the HFX win means they have little time to recover.
Cavalry have arrived in Ottawa on the back of an unbeaten three-game run. They opened the spell with a 6-0 demolition of Supra du Québec at home, then drew 1-1 with Forge FC on their own turf, and most recently edged Pacific FC 1-0 away. In those three games they have scored eight times and let in only one, keeping two clean sheets. The 6-0 win was the only match with three or more goals, while the draw saw both sides on the scoresheet. Like Ottawa, Cavalry also played just four days ago, so fatigue should be similar for both sides.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be tight affairs, with few goals and both sides often finding the net. This pattern fits the numbers we have for the upcoming meeting: we expect a total of about 2½ goals, with Ottawa likely to score at least once in roughly seven out of ten games and Cavalry to score in about eight out of ten. Both teams have shown the ability to keep clean sheets, but Cavalry’s recent defensive record is stronger. The match could therefore be a low-scoring contest, but there is enough firepower on display to produce at least one goal from each side.
Our pick is Cavalry FC or a draw, and we think the price of 1.22 is attractive. The price is shorter than what we see in the game, giving us a safety net while still backing the stronger side. For the pick to fail, Ottawa would need to win outright, which would require them to break a run of scoring only once in three games and keep a clean sheet against a side that has only let in one goal recently. If that happens, the price would not pay off, but we feel the odds of a Cavalry win or a shared point are high enough to make the bet worthwhile.
Recent results
Cavalry FC have won three of the last five meetings.
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