How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Forge FC to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Forge FC and 0.8 from HFX Wanderers FC, so Forge FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Forge FC come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Forge FC to win. Forge FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Forge FC have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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