How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cavalry FC to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Inter Toronto FC and 1.9 from Cavalry FC, so Cavalry FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Cavalry FC to win. Cavalry FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.9), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cavalry FC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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