How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Supra du Québec or Draw 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Supra du Québec host Pacific FC at home in a Canadian Premier League clash on 4 October 2026. Supra sit seventh out of eight teams with 25 points from 23 games, while Pacific are bottom of the table on 14 points. The gap between them is 11 points, and Inter Toronto sit just above Supra with a two-point advantage. Both clubs are fighting to avoid the last-place spot, so a win or even a draw could be important for their survival hopes. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, and Supra are the stronger side on those expectations.
Supra’s recent form has been poor. In their last four matches they have won only once and lost three times. The most recent result was a 6-0 defeat away to Cavalry FC. Before that they beat Atlético Ottawa 2-0 away, then lost 1-0 away to Forge FC and 2-0 at home to HFX Wanderers. In those four games Supra have scored just two goals while conceding nine. They kept one clean sheet, failed to find the net in three matches and have only been involved in a single game with three or more goals, with neither side scoring in that encounter.
Pacific FC have been a little more balanced in their last four outings. They have recorded one win, two draws and one loss. Their latest game was a 4-3 victory away at Inter Toronto FC. Prior to that they drew 1-1 with Vancouver FC at home, suffered a 1-0 home loss to Cavalry FC and drew 3-3 away at Inter Toronto. Across those four fixtures Pacific have scored eight and let in eight. They failed to score in only one match and have been part of three games with three or more goals, with both sides finding the net in each of those high-scoring contests.
The two clubs have met before, but the record does not give a clear pattern. Given the recent results, this meeting is likely to follow the trend of open, goal-rich affairs. Both sides have shown they can score, and both have also struggled defensively. The expectation of 3.3 goals in the game fits the recent scoring patterns, especially Pacific’s three-goal games and Supra’s occasional ability to keep a clean sheet. We anticipate a match where chances will come from both ends and the scoreline could swing either way.
Our pick is Supra du Québec or a draw. The price of 1.23 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a wider safety net while still backing the lean side. The chance of this outcome succeeding is about 74 out of 100. For the pick to fail, Pacific would need to win outright, which would require them to improve defensively and keep Supra from scoring at all – a scenario that looks less likely given Supra’s 81 % chance of scoring and their higher expected goal tally. The price looks good and the reasoning solid, making this a sensible way to back the home side without demanding a precise result.
Recent results
Supra du Québec have won two of the last three meetings, with one drawn.
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