How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Atlético Ottawa to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Atlético Ottawa and 1.2 from Supra du Québec, so Atlético Ottawa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Supra du Québec come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Atlético Ottawa to win. Atlético Ottawa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.2), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.55, which works out at about 39 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Atlético Ottawa have won three of the last three meetings.
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