How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Cavalry FC to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Cavalry FC and 0.9 from Forge FC, so Cavalry FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Cavalry FC come into this on five straight wins. Forge FC come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cavalry FC to win. Cavalry FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.95, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cavalry FC have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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