What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Aston Villa and 1.1 from Fenerbahce, so Aston Villa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Aston Villa come into this on two straight wins. Fenerbahce come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aston Villa (Draw No Bet). Aston Villa are favoured here (xG 2.5-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Aston Villa defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
